Gilmer vs. North Lamar: The 35-Point Gap, the 56-Point Swing, and the One Way It Gets Weird

The whole thing

Last Friday's Spring Hill recap closed with a sneak peek and a promise. The series record, the Sunnyvale common opponent, the Massey gap, the "Gilmer by 45" line on smoaky, and the cornerback with five interceptions. Come back Wednesday for the whole thing. Here it is.

Head-to-head first. Gilmer has played North Lamar six straight years since 2020 and won all six. Combined score: 307-31. The six games: 54-0, 56-6, 42-6, 49-12, 56-0, 50-7. Gilmer has never allowed more than 12 in any of them. That is six Novembers of the same result, every time.

Common opponent is Sunnyvale. Gilmer won 49-28 at home back in September. North Lamar lost at Sunnyvale 56-21. That is a 56-point swing on a team both squads had to play this fall.

Massey Ratings has Gilmer at #102 in Texas and #551 nationally. North Lamar sits at #786 in Texas and #7,861 nationally. The power gap is 35.5 points. Massey picked the winner in 9 of the last 10 games across these two programs. Its one miss was Pittsburg getting us by two. For reference, Massey had Spring Hill 55-20 last Friday (also a 35-point gap) and the actual score was 55-28. Massey has not published a prediction for this game, so we did the math ourselves. A 35-point gap maps to roughly 52-17.

The smoaky bi-district thread opened with "Gilmer by 45." The reply said that could be a halftime score. Both posts went up before anyone on the board had done any of the math above.

The one way this gets weird: Jayce Smith. North Lamar's cornerback has five interceptions this season. One corner is not a game plan, and he cannot tackle Tayveon Horne by himself. But he is the kind of player who takes a drive away. If North Lamar is in this at halftime, his fingerprints are on it.

The matchup

Gilmer is 8-2, 4-1 in District 8-4A Division II, on a four-game winning streak (Pleasant Grove, Center, Carthage, Spring Hill). The last one was 55-28 at Spring Hill, where Zade Taylor went 8-of-9 for 107 and ran nine times for 135. The two losses are the Pine Tree opener and the 58-56 Pittsburg shootout. The last three games have gone 27 allowed, 42 allowed in the Carthage win, 28 allowed. Pointed in the right direction heading into December.

North Lamar is 4-5, 2-3 in District 7, fourth seed. They have lost three of their last four, including 52-6 at Ford in the finale. Against a team with a winning record they have not scored more than 31. Against the better teams on their schedule (Mount Vernon, Sunnyvale, Farmersville, Ford) they have scored 18, 21, 20 and 6. Head coach Carlos Guevara's program had won one game total across the two seasons before this one; this is the first playoff trip since 2016. That is an accomplishment to respect, not a scouting report that worries us.

Why Mesquite? The Gilmer staff tried every stadium between Gilmer and Paris. Every one of those schools is in the playoffs and would not rent. Mount Pleasant passed. Thursday was out because North Lamar's band made state. Hanby Stadium is about two hours from Gilmer and 1:45 from Paris. The UIL rule that gives the 1 and 2 seeds a first-round home game reaches 1A through 4A for the 2027-28 alignment (5A and 6A have had it since 2023), so this year the 1 seed rides a bus.

Around the barbecue

Gilmer fans on smoaky and on the Buckeye Football fan page are arguing about two things: the drive and the seed. The drive is the loud one. Going toward Dallas to play an East Texas team is sitting sideways with a lot of folks. A 1 seed should be at home. Nobody wants to drive two hours to watch an opponent that "would have finished last in our district." There is a counterweight on the same fan page worth hearing: a 4-5 team playing with nothing to lose is the dangerous kind.

The seed argument is more satisfying because there is an answer. The 2027-28 UIL alignment brings the top-two-seed home bi-district down to 4A. Next year, Gilmer and Carthage are both at home this Friday. This year, both ride buses.

The first number anybody put on the smoaky thread was "Gilmer by 45." The reply said that could be the halftime score.

Over in the "Down goes Carthage" thread, Spring Hill fans said they liked having North Lamar in the old district because it was another winnable game. Gilmer posters on the same thread said District 8 is better with Center and Carthage than it would have been with North Lamar. Nobody on the board has North Lamar hanging around in Mesquite.

Our take

This is the easiest game on Gilmer's schedule since the 103-0 Van film from 2024, and the real question is not who wins. It is whether Zade Taylor and the starters are off the field by the end of the third, or whether the defense puts up a Pittsburg-style number and gives us something to talk about on the drive home. The defense trending the right way is the whole December argument. Make it Friday too.

Three Gilmer runners combine for about 326 rushing yards a game. North Lamar's top three combine for 159. Ismael Camara is 6-6, 335 pounds, an On3 four-star, and On3 has him as the top interior offensive lineman in Texas; North Lamar's defensive front has not seen anything close. Tayveon Horne is going to break at least one for a long one in the first half. That is the game.

Mark we set in the Spring Hill recap: hold North Lamar to 24 or fewer. We will grade ourselves on it in the rewind.

Prediction: Gilmer 52, North Lamar 17. Running clock in the fourth. Zade Taylor out by late third, Horne and Kipton Neighbors with him, everybody healthy for round two.

Tickets are $6 for adults and $4 for students, sold online, and district, THSCA and senior citizen passes are accepted, per the Gilmer Mirror. The Mirror has the fan bus for Friday night. Two hours each way from Upshur County down to Mesquite. Fill the bus.

Brackets across the state are already live in the picks window, and this is the week the East Texas high school football playoffs stop being about bragging and start being about November. Make your picks.