Key takeaways
- Jaguars are the hottest team in football and they get a thumb-injured Lamar Jackson in prime time. Thursday is a nightmare for everyone picking at home.
- Bills sit on top of every power ranking and travel to Minnesota on Monday Night Football with a chance to bury the NFC North bubble team.
- Chiefs are cooling off fast. Two straight losses, the explosive run game is gone, and now a 2-6 Jets team walks into Arrowhead. Not as easy as the records say.
- Our model's lock is Seattle at home against Arizona. Its upset alert is the biggest road dog on the board, and a third quiet steam pick sits behind the paywall at Pick Insights.
- Thursday kickoff is 8:15 Central. If you haven't locked your card by then, that game is already gone.
It's Tuesday night. You're staring at a Week 9 slate with one of the hottest teams in football as a road underdog, Lamar Jackson playing one-handed, a Chiefs team that suddenly can't run the ball, a Bills-Vikings Monday nightcap, and a game being played in Madrid at 8:30 AM Central. Welcome to the weirdest week of the season.
This is the pick'em preview. Who's hot going in, who's walking in bleeding, what the experts at CBS and ESPN are saying, and where our own AI model is pounding the table. Ground rules: the model's full board of all 15 Week 9 calls lives on Pick Insights, and that is where you go for every confidence number. In here we give you the lock, the upset alert, and a reason to click through.
Who's hot walking into Week 9
Jacksonville Jaguars (5-2)
If you've been asleep on the Jaguars since September, wake up. They are 14-3 over their last 17 regular-season games going back to last November. They are one of only two teams ranked top-ten in both scoring offense and scoring defense. They lead the entire league in point differential. Thursday night they travel to Baltimore, and if you look at the Ravens quarterback depth chart right now your eyes start bleeding. More on that in a second. This is the spot where a hot team quietly starts separating itself from the AFC pack.
Buffalo Bills (6-1)
Prisco's Week 9 power rankings have them at number one. ESPN's power rankings agree. If you have been reading this blog a while, you know I do not trust power rankings in October. With seven games of sample and a five-point win over the Chiefs already on the resume, they are the best team in the AFC right now. The question Monday night: can a defensive-minded Vikings team at home make Josh Allen play a frustrating, low-possession game. If yes, Buffalo at -3.5 is not as free as it looks.
The sneaky one: Chicago Bears
Nobody wants to talk about the Bears but they are climbing every power ranking that matters this week. They host Tampa Bay on Sunday Night Football as a six-point home favorite. That is a lot of wood against a Bucs team still above .500. Something to watch, especially if your pool awards bonus points for prime-time games.
Who's cold, who's hurt, who's just plain finished
Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
They started 5-0. They have now lost two straight, and here is the detail that should scare you off the easy survivor play: the explosive run game that defined the 5-0 start is just gone. Seattle shut them down. The Broncos took away a two-score lead and stuffed them at the goal line in the final seconds. This Sunday the Jets come to Arrowhead at 2-6, and on paper that is the perfect get-right spot. Look at the way Kansas City is playing right now and tell me you would confidence-point this game at your top number.
Baltimore Ravens (4-4)
Lamar Jackson came back from an ankle injury, played one snap, hurt his thumb. Backup Tyler Huntley went down with a toe injury on top of that. The emergency quarterback is undrafted rookie Joe Fagnano. They have lost three straight. On Thursday night. Against the Jaguars. Who are the hottest team in the sport. You can do the math on that one.
New York Jets (2-6)
Last week they scored on six straight possessions and still lost to the Raiders 38-33. Six. Straight. Possessions. That is not a football team, that is a group project where the defense forgot to show up. Our model still has Kansas City at a 75-percent confidence pick this week, which should tell you how much of Vegas's -9.5 the model actually trusts.
What the experts are saying
CBS Sports' John Breech, who went 8-6 last week (his worst of the year), is calling five of the key games this week:
| Matchup | Breech's pick | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Jaguars @ Ravens (TNF) | Jaguars | 30-13 |
| Bengals vs Falcons (Madrid) | Bengals | 34-31 |
| Packers @ Patriots | Packers | 23-20 |
| Buccaneers @ Bears (SNF) | Bears | 23-20 |
| Bills @ Vikings (MNF) | Bills | 24-17 |
Notice he has the hot team blowing out the backup quarterback on Thursday. Not a controversial take, but a loud one when every public pick'em pool is seeing Baltimore priced as a trap home favorite because of the Lamar news. Prisco's updated Week 9 power rankings have the Bills at number one and the Steelers climbing fast, which is worth noting if you are riding streaks in a confidence pool.
The disagreement to watch: Monday night in Minnesota. ESPN consensus and most of the betting market like Buffalo moderately. Our model agrees but only at 58-percent confidence. Translation: if you are in a confidence pool, do not bury this game at your top number. A Vikings home upset absolutely plays.
Our model's corner: the lock and the road dog
The model is pounding the table on one road dog this week. If it hits, it ends somebody's survivor run.
This is where we actually earn our keep. Our v2-oracle model ran its 15-game board for Week 9 and two calls jumped off the page.
The lock: Seattle Seahawks (-11.5) at home vs Arizona
Our model's highest-confidence pick on the slate at 76.1 percent. The Cardinals are walking into a loud building without the healthy piece they would need to make it a game, and the injury report tilts hard in Seattle's favor. If you are playing a confidence pool, this is a top-three number. If you are in survivor, this is the kind of chalk where the only real risk is a weird injury swing the morning of.
The upset alert: Jaguars on the road at Baltimore
Our model has Jacksonville at 74.0 percent to win outright on the road, and the specific flag is reverse line movement. That is sharp money on the pick even while the public piles in on the other side. Pair that with a thumb-injured Lamar Jackson, a toe-injured backup, and a third-string rookie who has never taken a snap, and Thursday night is the exact spot where the road favorite looks underpriced to everyone except the people betting it. We are not telling you to bet. We are telling you not to be shocked when it covers.
There is a third quiet call the model likes that we are not putting in this post, and it is one of the road favorites on the Sunday slate flagged with heavy steam. If you want it, the full board of all 15 Week 9 picks, with confidence numbers and the reason behind every one, is on Pick Insights.
Pick'em tip: In a confidence pool, do not spend your top three numbers on three road favorites. Two road dogs in Week 9 (Jaguars at Baltimore, Giants at Philadelphia) are being priced like coin flips. Get at least one home chalk in your top tier so a single Thursday upset does not tank your entire card.
Survivor trap of the week: Kansas City at home against a 2-6 Jets team looks like a give-me. It is not. The Chiefs are averaging 14 points over their last two games. If you still have Seattle on the shelf in your survivor pool, that is the cleaner play this week.
Before Thursday kickoff
Three things to double-check before 8:15 Central on Thursday. One, your pool deadline. Some pools cut off at the first kickoff of the week and lock the whole card at once. If yours does, you are picking all 15 games tonight. Two, the Ravens quarterback situation. If a veteran free agent shows up in Baltimore by Thursday morning, the Jaguars pick number moves. Three, the Minnesota weather report, because Monday night in November is where the forecast actually starts to matter for a passing attack.
Last week's pick'em preview had the Bears circled going in and that one hit. If you want to see how the full slate shook out, our Week 8 pick'em preview is here. If you are also running fantasy picks alongside your pick'em card, the Week 9 waiver wire has the backups-turned-starters you need on your bench before Thursday's claim deadline.
Now stop reading and go lock your card. The hot team is getting points, the lock of the week is 11.5 at home, and if you like calling the road dog in a spot where the world is picking the hurt home team, Thursday night is yours.