The Playbook › NFL pick'em and survivor pools
Pick'em Desk
Weekly pick'em previews, survivor-pool strategy and the numbers behind both, drawn from the picks DaqsPickEm members actually make each week and how those picks graded.
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Week 2 Pick'em
NFL Week 2 2026 Pick’em Preview: Experts, Locks, and the Model’s Boldest Call
The experts split on Panthers-Falcons and Jags-Broncos. Our model has a 77% lock and one game it literally can’t call. Read this before Thursday.
Week 1 Pick'em
NFL Week 1 Preview: What the Experts Are Picking — and Where Our Model Fights Back
ESPN and Pete Prisco set the market. The sharps push a line. Our AI model picks a fight with both. Your Wednesday cheat sheet before Thursday kickoff.
Week 1 Pick'em
NFL Week 1 2026 Pick'em Preview: The Only Lock, The Trap Line, and the Road Dog Our Model Won't Shut Up About
Sixteen games, nine of them coin flips, one true lock, and a Sunday slate our AI model has a very specific opinion about. Here's what to do before Thursday.
Strategy
Survivor Pool Strategy: Why the Best Pick Is Almost Never the Best Team
Survivor pools aren't about picking winners — they're about spending your teams wisely. The game theory that separates week-14 survivors from week-3 casualties.
Week 18 Rankings
2025 NFL Regular Season Standings: Three Teams at 14-3
Eighteen weeks produced a three-way tie for the best record, an 8-9 division champion hosting a playoff game, and Kansas City at 6-11. The full final standings, the stories behind them, and the bracket by seed.
Week 15 Injuries
Patrick Mahomes ACL Injury: What the Chiefs Collapse Means
Patrick Mahomes tore the ACL and LCL in his left knee in Week 15 and had surgery the next night. Here is what it does to fantasy championship week, to survivor pools that have leaned on Kansas City for a decade, and to the AFC.
Week 14 Pick'em
Week 14 Survivor: Just 10 Entries Left After Saints Beat Bucs
The Saints beat the Buccaneers 24-20 and took out 62% of the remaining survivor field. Ten entries are left in an $18.7M contest, and survivor strategy works completely differently when almost nobody is alive.
Week 13 Pick'em
Thanksgiving 2025 Wiped Out 94.5% of the Survivor Pool Field
The Lions, Chiefs and Ravens all lost on Thanksgiving, the Bears upset the Eagles, and 849 entries died in a single week. The most destructive survivor slate of the year, and what it proves about picking favorites.
Week 10 Pick'em
Panthers-Packers: The Biggest Upset of 2025 Guts Survivor
Carolina won 16-13 at Green Bay as a 13-point underdog, the biggest upset of the season. Then Week 10 turned the same Panthers into the pick that ended thousands of survivor entries.
Week 5 Pick'em
Week 5 Survivor Massacre: 49ers 26, Rams 23 in Overtime
The Rams were 8.5-point favorites and the single most-picked team in Circa Survivor. They lost in overtime, and 54% of the remaining field went with them. Here's the lesson about following the crowd.
Week 2 Hot Takes
Week 2 Overreactions: 2025's Big Favorites Are Falling
The Rams, Cardinals and Bills all lost as big favorites in Week 2. Here's which of those results is real signal, which is noise, and why survivor players should be nervous already.
Draft Prep
Late-Round QB Strategy: Why 2025 Drafts Reward Waiting
Paying up at quarterback feels safe and drafts badly. Here's the case for late-round QB strategy in 2025, what the offseason actually changed, and why pick'em and survivor pools flip the logic entirely.
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